US pauses Russia-linked tariff threat as Rubio says India trade deal is weeks away

What happened

On 16 October 2026 President Trump issued an executive order waiving several sanctions and duties under the US Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, citing the national interest (Business Today, 17 October 2026). The Act could have led to tariffs of up to 100% on imports from major buyers of Russian crude, including India, and its 30-day window was to run out on 18 October. ThePrint (20 October) describes the waiver as lasting 60 days. The measures are suspended, not repealed.

On 20 October, during his India visit, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the two countries were "weeks, not months" from finalising a trade agreement. He gave no signing date and said some wording was still being negotiated (DiyaTV, 21 October 2026). Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said India will sign only if the terms give Indian exporters an edge over competitors such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

Why it matters for exporters

• The immediate risk of a very high extra US tariff on Indian goods has gone for now. Today most Indian goods still pay the 10% Section 301 duty in place since 24 July 2026, plus normal MFN duty.
• A trade deal could change those rates, but nothing has been published, so do not price future US orders on a deal that does not exist yet.

What to watch

• When the waiver ends and whether it is renewed.
• A joint statement or published text of the India–US agreement.
• Exportsmitra suggests adding a tariff-change clause to long US contracts, saying who bears any new duty.

Sources

• Business Today: Trump pauses Russia-linked tariffs threatening India and China, 17 Oct 2026
• ThePrint: Trump's Russian oil waiver and India's winter supplies, 20 Oct 2026
• DiyaTV: Rubio says US-India trade deal is weeks away, 21 Oct 2026
• Raisina Post brief, 21 Oct 2026

Last checked: 22 October 2026.

Drafted with AI help from public sources.